Borders That Move, Fewer Immigrants may be Hurting US Economy, and Why MPP Is Still in Place

Over the past month, there has been a substantial growth in interest in this Substack newsletter. The number of people now getting it has doubled from about 400 to more than 800 people in just three months. This is really exciting and I want to say ‘thank you’ to all of the people who have sent kind messages or shared this work online recently. I’m passionate about making immigration news, policy, and research more accessible, so please know that the support is greatly appreciated.

People Move (But So Do Borders)

Rivers are one of the most common borders in the world, often serving as the border between states, provinces, and countries, if not informal boundaries between cultural groups, traditions, and personal properties.

Yet borders move. As this map below show, the Mississippi River, which itself serves as the border for many US states has moved many times over the past couple thousand years. Thanks to Randall Stephens for sharing this out.

By the way, if you want to go down a rabbit hole, check out Harold Fisk’s work online, starting with Radical Cartography’s post about Fisk here. Just amazing maps!

Randall Stephens @Randall_Stps

US Army engineer Harold Fisk’s 1944 map of the changing course of the Mississippi River over thousands of years.

Here’s a close-up of the map:

It’s not just the Mississippi, either. The Rio Grande, the river that allegedly separates the US from Mexico has shifted its course over many years as shown by this visualization and discussion below by NPR.

“Ever since Texas became a state, the river has been the border between the two countries. But rivers can move — and that's exactly what happened in 1864, when torrential rains caused it to jump its banks and go south. Suddenly the border was in a different place, and Texas had gained 700 acres of land called the Chamizal (pronounced chah-mee-ZAHL), so named for a type of plant that grew there.”

Does the US have too much immigration or not enough?

A growing chorus of economists and analysts have been arguing that a significant part of the US’s current economic woes can be attributed to the declining number of immigrants who are coming to the United States to work.

This phenomenon was already noted late last year, driven in part by Trump’s immigration policies and the enormous loss of life from the pandemic. Jeremy Robbins of the American Immigration Council told NPR:

"If you can't get the key workers you need, the whole industry slows down. And the whole economy slows down."

The Brookings Institute echoed the relationship between migration and challenges in the workplace. Dany Bahar summed it up clearly earlier this year:

The irony is clear; if there was any time in the modern history of the United States to promote a flexibilization of its migration policies, it is now. It is the most efficient and easiest way to offer a smart solution to the unprecedented tightness in U.S. labor markets. It is a no-brainer.

As the midterm elections get closer, some elected representatives are attempting to introduce policy changes. Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren and John Curtis introduced the EAGLE Act in the House earlier this year and Senators Kevin Cramer and John Hickenlooper just introduced this bill in the Senate.

Under the Act, the 7% per country cap on US green cards would be eliminated while increasing the per-country limit on family-sponsored US visas from 7% to 15%. The proposals would enable US employers to focus on recruiting immigrants based on merit, not their country of birth.

It’s unclear whether this bill has a real chance in the House or Senate, or how central Democrats will make labor migration to their platform as they fight to keep seats in Congress this fall.

Biden Administration in No Rush to End One of Trump’s Worst Immigration Policies

The Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP, or Remain in Mexico) forced tends of thousands of asylum seekers to stay in Mexico, making it all but impossible for them to obtain asylum. The Biden administration attempted to end this program last year, but then a federal judge forced them to start the program up again.

But finally, in June, the Supreme Court decided that the Biden administration can, in fact, end MPP—a decision that was welcomed by DHS at the time.

It’s August now, more than a month later, and the latest reporting from Michelle Hackman at the Wall Street Journal indicates that the administration is dragging its feet. Some experts suggest that the administration is taking its time to avoid more legal troubles, while others are growing impatient and see no reason to end (or at least take clear steps to end) the program, writes Jasmine Aguilera for TIME.

It might be strategically advantageous to move cautiously given all of the recent litigation in Texas surrounding immigration policy, I’m not sure. But I think what advocates find frustrating more than anything is the perception that the administration is really not all that serious about providing a vigorous defense of immigrant rights, even after four years of daily assault from the prior administration.

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