ICE Arrests Decline in July, Immigrants with No Criminal History Still Largest Group
The Deportation Data Project released new ICE data. In Part 5, I update previous graphs and analysis with the latest ICE arrest data, plus huge thanks to John Oliver's HBO show for using this data.
This is Part 5 of a multi-part series on ICE data made public by the Deportation Data Project. If you haven't yet, you may want to read Part 1 (or listen), Part 2, Part 3, or Part 4 before diving into this analysis.
The Deportation Data Project released new figures yesterday covering ICE enforcement activities through the end of July, obtained through their ongoing Freedom of Information Act lawsuit against Immigration and Customs Enforcement. This data provides an updated picture of immigration enforcement trends that builds on previous analysis of ICE arrest patterns.
The latest data shows that overall arrest numbers decreased between June and July, marking a notable month-to-month decline. However, these figures remain elevated when viewed against recent historical context, indicating that immigration enforcement continues at levels significantly higher than previous periods.
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ICE's daily arrest numbers also tell an important story about enforcement capacity and policy. Despite previous reports of a 3,000-per-day arrest quota, daily figures have consistently fallen short of reaching this threshold, with no significant increase in recent daily totals.
This discrepancy becomes more convoluted when considering recent court filings from the Department of Justice that have challenged the existence of such a policy altogether, contradicting earlier public statements and media reports that supported the existence of these daily quotas.
I’ll leave it to the lawyers to decide whether the administration’s touting of a daily goal of 3,000 arrests does or does not constitute a quota. It seems that, once again, the administration likes to say one thing in public, then something different in official filings—reminiscent of Trump’s debunked allegations that the election was stolen. In any case, regardless of whether 3,000 daily arrests was a “goal” or a “quota”, the administration is not meeting it. The data makes that clear.
Perhaps the most significant finding from previous analysis continues to hold true in the July data: the demographic composition of ICE arrests remains skewed toward individuals with no criminal history. The surge in arrests that peaked at the end of May and continued through mid-June was primarily driven by enforcement actions against immigrants without criminal backgrounds.
While this number retreated from its previous high by the end of June and maintained lower levels throughout July, immigrants with no criminal history still represent the largest single category of ICE arrests through the end of July. Remarkably, this group continues to exceed the number of arrests involving immigrants with criminal convictions—a pattern that raises important questions about enforcement priorities and resource allocation.
These trends in ICE enforcement data reveal the ongoing tension between stated policy objectives and actual implementation on the ground. As the Deportation Data Project continues to extract information through litigation, these updates provide crucial transparency into immigration enforcement patterns that might otherwise remain hidden from public scrutiny.
The persistence of high arrest numbers, combined with the continued focus on individuals without criminal histories, suggests that current enforcement practices remain at odds with stated priorities of focusing resources on those who pose genuine public safety concerns. As new data becomes available, tracking these patterns will be essential for understanding the real-world impact of immigration enforcement policies.
Visit Deportation Data Project online to get the data for yourself or download my summary datasets from the Datawrapper graphics above.
Thank You, John Oliver! 🎉
I was thrilled to see this Substack newsletter featured on Last Week Tonight with John Oliver in the most recent show. I don't think I've ever felt quite so excited to see this research reach such a wide audience, and I'm grateful to the show's team for reaching out. This kind of visibility would not be possible without all of the supporters and readers of this work, so thank you all enormously. Hopefully this provides additional evidence that your investment in this research is making a real impact.
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Please keep pushing your real (evidence based) data out to the media. People need to hear real data. It can combat fake news. It makes a difference! Independent Journalists need your data!
John Oliver always does a deep-dive on the topics he selects, so it’s awesome that he’s focusing on your exhaustive and excellent research. Congratulations!