Might this suggest a coordinated effort and not just sloppy reporting so as to evade scrutiny for certain detainees, as in the most egregious cases of due process denied or those who may have been harmed in detention, given this administration's sledgehammer approach to immigration?
ICE is incentivized to overcount its totals, not undercount them so It's likely this is due to mathematical incompetence. How can we find out if people are being lost (disappeared) through ICE logistical incompetence, poor record keeping, or criminal carelessness? This will make it easier to cover up fatalities due to ICE brutality and unhealthy detention conditions.
Adelanto detention facility in California is another example of strange numbers. It was shut down but not closed by COVID, and incompetent handling of detainees with food deprivation, physical and mental abuse and shoddy medical care. Then it reopened by the trump regime in June with an announcement there were 1200 detainees at the facility. But looking at TRAC’s numbers they’re showing less than 600. They are receiving more immigrants every day with ICE’s heavy presence in Southern California. Does anyone know what the true numbers are or is it another example of shitty processing procedures. No wonder families can’t locate their kidnapped loved ones.
The numbers at TRAC are the year-to-date average daily population numbers that ICE publishes directly in these reports, and so will not immediately capture a population spike after being unused and then modestly used for most of the fiscal year. But using the "Interval ADP" method mentioned above with the FY ADP numbers published by ICE through 6/23, you definitely can see a massive spike up to nearly 1300 average daily detainees from 6/10 to 6/23, which does basically track with the 1,200 Rep. Chu estimated on 6/17.
Adelanto is actually a case where the 7/7 numbers aren't OBVIOUSLY wrong; what they're calling cumulative "stays" here actually did increase between the two reports, and not just in a small, nominal way that is clearly wrong, though they do imply the average population was down below 1,000 in between the reports.
But given the widespread, obvious errors throughout the 7/7 report, I'd probably still assume those numbers are garbage until the whole situation is cleared up.
So when you say the numbers ICE publishes in their reports, are you looking just at TRAC reports? TRAC points to ICE withholding information on the book ins and book outs and as it pertains to contractual capacity. Detainees are frequently moving from one detention facility to another and as is the case of immigrant workers arrested in the Glass House ICE raids. While their families and attorneys were trying to locate them, they were deported to Tijuana two days after their arrest. In one case, a family saw their loved one’s name appear on Adelanto Inmate Locator, but when they made calls to the detention center, they say they’re not there. Then comes the phone call, they were deported to Tijuana one to two days after their arrest. Is this intentional or just fucked up book in, book out processing?
I think there's probably two related things at work there?
One, that ICE has basically never provided instantaneous facility population and capacity, so TRAC had to FOIA it, and only got it for one day in mid-April (and some other fiscal year data). I don't think(?) TRAC published the numbers for Adelanto on that day (because it wasn't over capacity), but eyeballing the size of the circles on their map seems like it's in line with what can be calculated from the data ICE does regularly provide, which is that there were a bit over 300 people there on average around that time (https://austinkocher.substack.com/p/a-first-look-at-ices-detained-population).
And then in June DHS went all-in with these awful SoCal operations and by mid-month ICE's numbers imply Adelanto was suddenly averaging around 1,300 a day, which is in line with direct reports from Rep. Chu etc. around then, and probably contributes to the second thing: that these operations, their huge wave of unnecessary arrests and new (often non-standard) detention facilities getting added are pushing both their sloppy practices (bookings and constant transfers) and their already-flaky tracking systems like ODLS beyond breaking, and ICE doesn't really care enough about the people arrested or their families to fix them.
Which is all to say that I think you can mostly reconcile (with a bit of math) the population numbers ICE has been officially reporting for Adelanto with all the abuse and chaos people are reporting out of there and SoCal generally.
I follow his SubStack. Have you checked out the ICE spreadsheets for Arrests, Detainers, Removals and Detention available through Deportation Data? The first three spreadsheets are for the period September 1, 2023 through June 26, 2025. The Detention is for 2023 - 2024 timeframe. The Administrative Arrests spreadsheet is sloppy with double postings and missing information. I’m compiling data for the Ventura County area for June 2025.
Maybe I'm thinking of the wrong thing, but aren't the latest DDP Detention and Arrests sheets through (almost) the end of June now? Just as a sanity check I was able to match up an arrest and subsequent facility transfer details in there through 6/25.
But yeah, between the size and the field content inconsistency not a fun data set to work with.
Question. With respect to the Glass House raids on July 10, would there be a book in book out if the immigrant was processed and then deported to Tijuana two or three days later? It’s my understanding, most were held including two US citizens at the Metropolitan Detention Center in downtown Los Angeles.
Might this suggest a coordinated effort and not just sloppy reporting so as to evade scrutiny for certain detainees, as in the most egregious cases of due process denied or those who may have been harmed in detention, given this administration's sledgehammer approach to immigration?
I think it’s probably a sloppy mistake, but I will withhold judgment until we know for sure!
ICE is incentivized to overcount its totals, not undercount them so It's likely this is due to mathematical incompetence. How can we find out if people are being lost (disappeared) through ICE logistical incompetence, poor record keeping, or criminal carelessness? This will make it easier to cover up fatalities due to ICE brutality and unhealthy detention conditions.
Simple explanation: they’ve replaced competent experts with loyalist idiots. This explains 90% of every nonsensical thing this regime does
Adelanto detention facility in California is another example of strange numbers. It was shut down but not closed by COVID, and incompetent handling of detainees with food deprivation, physical and mental abuse and shoddy medical care. Then it reopened by the trump regime in June with an announcement there were 1200 detainees at the facility. But looking at TRAC’s numbers they’re showing less than 600. They are receiving more immigrants every day with ICE’s heavy presence in Southern California. Does anyone know what the true numbers are or is it another example of shitty processing procedures. No wonder families can’t locate their kidnapped loved ones.
The numbers at TRAC are the year-to-date average daily population numbers that ICE publishes directly in these reports, and so will not immediately capture a population spike after being unused and then modestly used for most of the fiscal year. But using the "Interval ADP" method mentioned above with the FY ADP numbers published by ICE through 6/23, you definitely can see a massive spike up to nearly 1300 average daily detainees from 6/10 to 6/23, which does basically track with the 1,200 Rep. Chu estimated on 6/17.
Adelanto is actually a case where the 7/7 numbers aren't OBVIOUSLY wrong; what they're calling cumulative "stays" here actually did increase between the two reports, and not just in a small, nominal way that is clearly wrong, though they do imply the average population was down below 1,000 in between the reports.
But given the widespread, obvious errors throughout the 7/7 report, I'd probably still assume those numbers are garbage until the whole situation is cleared up.
You’re right. Brain fart🤪
So when you say the numbers ICE publishes in their reports, are you looking just at TRAC reports? TRAC points to ICE withholding information on the book ins and book outs and as it pertains to contractual capacity. Detainees are frequently moving from one detention facility to another and as is the case of immigrant workers arrested in the Glass House ICE raids. While their families and attorneys were trying to locate them, they were deported to Tijuana two days after their arrest. In one case, a family saw their loved one’s name appear on Adelanto Inmate Locator, but when they made calls to the detention center, they say they’re not there. Then comes the phone call, they were deported to Tijuana one to two days after their arrest. Is this intentional or just fucked up book in, book out processing?
I think there's probably two related things at work there?
One, that ICE has basically never provided instantaneous facility population and capacity, so TRAC had to FOIA it, and only got it for one day in mid-April (and some other fiscal year data). I don't think(?) TRAC published the numbers for Adelanto on that day (because it wasn't over capacity), but eyeballing the size of the circles on their map seems like it's in line with what can be calculated from the data ICE does regularly provide, which is that there were a bit over 300 people there on average around that time (https://austinkocher.substack.com/p/a-first-look-at-ices-detained-population).
And then in June DHS went all-in with these awful SoCal operations and by mid-month ICE's numbers imply Adelanto was suddenly averaging around 1,300 a day, which is in line with direct reports from Rep. Chu etc. around then, and probably contributes to the second thing: that these operations, their huge wave of unnecessary arrests and new (often non-standard) detention facilities getting added are pushing both their sloppy practices (bookings and constant transfers) and their already-flaky tracking systems like ODLS beyond breaking, and ICE doesn't really care enough about the people arrested or their families to fix them.
Which is all to say that I think you can mostly reconcile (with a bit of math) the population numbers ICE has been officially reporting for Adelanto with all the abuse and chaos people are reporting out of there and SoCal generally.
I follow his SubStack. Have you checked out the ICE spreadsheets for Arrests, Detainers, Removals and Detention available through Deportation Data? The first three spreadsheets are for the period September 1, 2023 through June 26, 2025. The Detention is for 2023 - 2024 timeframe. The Administrative Arrests spreadsheet is sloppy with double postings and missing information. I’m compiling data for the Ventura County area for June 2025.
Maybe I'm thinking of the wrong thing, but aren't the latest DDP Detention and Arrests sheets through (almost) the end of June now? Just as a sanity check I was able to match up an arrest and subsequent facility transfer details in there through 6/25.
But yeah, between the size and the field content inconsistency not a fun data set to work with.
Question. With respect to the Glass House raids on July 10, would there be a book in book out if the immigrant was processed and then deported to Tijuana two or three days later? It’s my understanding, most were held including two US citizens at the Metropolitan Detention Center in downtown Los Angeles.