The Wall Street Journal cited my analysis showing detention growth is driven almost entirely by people without criminal convictions. Here's exactly how I got those numbers.
I'll bet ICE is not tracking the number of people it unjustly snatches off the street without looking at their documents and hauls to a processing center, only later to release because they are either US citizens (often native americans), legal permanent residents, tourists, green card holders, or others who have no problems with their immigration status. I'm guessing those people are not showing in the numbers reported in ICE spreadsheets, because they don't go to the "detention centers", they just get released. But It seems that number is climbing even faster than the number of detainees, and the harm done has no justification, it is only because ICE is getting paid by the body taken for "processing", and because it helps terrify the immigrant community so that maybe they will leave on their own, thus changing the US demographics away from minorities towards whites.
Austin—Excellent breakdown. Your step-by-step math and visuals make the 11k detention spike’s non-criminal reality (92% no convictions) undeniable, per WSJ. Amid ICE’s spreadsheet blackout, it spotlights enforcement inefficiency. My recent column proposes a Trump deportation fix: mirror Obama’s prioritized approach in blue states to boost criminal removals without the bloat. Could be implemented fast for better results—thoughts? [https://open.substack.com/pub/swlion26/p/no-more-pretti-tragedies-trumps-smart?r=52t15r&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay]
Are you able to tell from the data how many of the convictions or criminal charges are for violent crimes? The Administration would have us believe many of the detained are rapists and murderers.
*average US citizens - meaning blacks and Hispanics are averaged in with white Americans. White and East Asian Americans have a lower crime rate than Hispanics, regardless of immigration status, and all those groups have lower crime rates than blacks.
Thank you for being such a good resource right now and helping show just what is actually happening in the US. Appreciate you and your work enormously.
I am avidly following your discussions of the methodology behind reporting. One issue I am still unclear about, since CBP is doing so much of the interior enforcement in this administration is whether their arrests are reported as CBP ones or as ICE ones when they are not actually at the border.
It’s a brilliant question of course and I think about this as well. It’s quite possible that for all of the spectacle of border patrol activity in Minneapolis, they may not actually be resulting in large numbers of bookings to detention or it might be ice officers actually make the arrest. This is definitely an area that I would like to get a better grasp on.
Is there any way to get a better understanding of the "throughput" related to each category. Obviously the number in each category is going up, but are we able to at all determine how much the numbers are going up due to more arrests strictly vs decreased capacity to deport? I suppose the key point I'm actually looking into is: is there any chance that the increase in the number of "convicted criminals" arrested is actually higher than it appears due to increased deportation rates? Said more plainly, is any part of the administrations plan to deport more of, heavy quotes, "the worst of the worst" succeeding? Setting aside the question of cost, efficacy, and side effects for the moment.
I'd like to get a better understanding of how to interpret these numbers to gauge the "success" of their stated goal. Appreciate it if you have any insight or can point me to where I might be misunderstanding the data as is.
Yes, this is a really good question and the snapshot numbers make it impossible to show flow through the system, which may occur at different rates based on certain characteristics. But we just don’t really know.
Thanks for the insight! I guessed as much, I suppose we'll have to wait and see if more data becomes available that can elucidate that factor. And great article nonetheless!
The latest Libtard lie talking point is that "only" 28% of those in ICE detention have a criminal record or are charged w/ a crime here in the U.S. If you dig into the data, even the Demtards who compiled this avalanche of lies concede that the 72% being held without charges or convictions are, in fact, ILLEGALLY in the U.S., via crossing the border without going thru legal immigration channels, or overstaying a visa. In short, for committing the CRIME of violating our nation's sovereign laws.
Further, if 28% of the 11-15M illegals BiDumb allowed in ARE criminals, via the grossly loose libtard definition that illegal entry isn't a crime, that's a MASSIVE CRIMINAL ELEMENT in the illegal population, 9x greater than the domestic criminal element expressed as a percentage of the U.S. population (3%). Certainly an element worth hunting down, detaining, convicting, and deporting.
Austin, what about what's happening in Minnesota? I know you do not have January data yet, but we have large numbers of both ICE agents and Border Patrol agents here, and both are making arrests (as well as sometimes killing people).
What’s the enforcement mechanism when they refuse to release data they are congressionally mandated to release and is there anyway we can escalate this issue.
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I'll bet ICE is not tracking the number of people it unjustly snatches off the street without looking at their documents and hauls to a processing center, only later to release because they are either US citizens (often native americans), legal permanent residents, tourists, green card holders, or others who have no problems with their immigration status. I'm guessing those people are not showing in the numbers reported in ICE spreadsheets, because they don't go to the "detention centers", they just get released. But It seems that number is climbing even faster than the number of detainees, and the harm done has no justification, it is only because ICE is getting paid by the body taken for "processing", and because it helps terrify the immigrant community so that maybe they will leave on their own, thus changing the US demographics away from minorities towards whites.
It’s time for each such detainee to be paid at least $1 million for suffering such an unlawful arrest.
And every one of these ICE detention centers is paid by the number of inmates per day. This isn't about deporting criminals.
This is profit from terror. Fascist State capitalism in its purest form.
Austin—Excellent breakdown. Your step-by-step math and visuals make the 11k detention spike’s non-criminal reality (92% no convictions) undeniable, per WSJ. Amid ICE’s spreadsheet blackout, it spotlights enforcement inefficiency. My recent column proposes a Trump deportation fix: mirror Obama’s prioritized approach in blue states to boost criminal removals without the bloat. Could be implemented fast for better results—thoughts? [https://open.substack.com/pub/swlion26/p/no-more-pretti-tragedies-trumps-smart?r=52t15r&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay]
Show your work. Live by the same motto! It is definitely for profit. Like the prison system.
Are you able to tell from the data how many of the convictions or criminal charges are for violent crimes? The Administration would have us believe many of the detained are rapists and murderers.
I would say it's probably a very small number. Studies in the past have demonstrated that immigrants tend to be more law-abiding that US citizens.
*average US citizens - meaning blacks and Hispanics are averaged in with white Americans. White and East Asian Americans have a lower crime rate than Hispanics, regardless of immigration status, and all those groups have lower crime rates than blacks.
Thank you for being such a good resource right now and helping show just what is actually happening in the US. Appreciate you and your work enormously.
I am avidly following your discussions of the methodology behind reporting. One issue I am still unclear about, since CBP is doing so much of the interior enforcement in this administration is whether their arrests are reported as CBP ones or as ICE ones when they are not actually at the border.
It’s a brilliant question of course and I think about this as well. It’s quite possible that for all of the spectacle of border patrol activity in Minneapolis, they may not actually be resulting in large numbers of bookings to detention or it might be ice officers actually make the arrest. This is definitely an area that I would like to get a better grasp on.
Is there any way to get a better understanding of the "throughput" related to each category. Obviously the number in each category is going up, but are we able to at all determine how much the numbers are going up due to more arrests strictly vs decreased capacity to deport? I suppose the key point I'm actually looking into is: is there any chance that the increase in the number of "convicted criminals" arrested is actually higher than it appears due to increased deportation rates? Said more plainly, is any part of the administrations plan to deport more of, heavy quotes, "the worst of the worst" succeeding? Setting aside the question of cost, efficacy, and side effects for the moment.
I'd like to get a better understanding of how to interpret these numbers to gauge the "success" of their stated goal. Appreciate it if you have any insight or can point me to where I might be misunderstanding the data as is.
Yes, this is a really good question and the snapshot numbers make it impossible to show flow through the system, which may occur at different rates based on certain characteristics. But we just don’t really know.
Thanks for the insight! I guessed as much, I suppose we'll have to wait and see if more data becomes available that can elucidate that factor. And great article nonetheless!
The latest Libtard lie talking point is that "only" 28% of those in ICE detention have a criminal record or are charged w/ a crime here in the U.S. If you dig into the data, even the Demtards who compiled this avalanche of lies concede that the 72% being held without charges or convictions are, in fact, ILLEGALLY in the U.S., via crossing the border without going thru legal immigration channels, or overstaying a visa. In short, for committing the CRIME of violating our nation's sovereign laws.
Further, if 28% of the 11-15M illegals BiDumb allowed in ARE criminals, via the grossly loose libtard definition that illegal entry isn't a crime, that's a MASSIVE CRIMINAL ELEMENT in the illegal population, 9x greater than the domestic criminal element expressed as a percentage of the U.S. population (3%). Certainly an element worth hunting down, detaining, convicting, and deporting.
Austin, what about what's happening in Minnesota? I know you do not have January data yet, but we have large numbers of both ICE agents and Border Patrol agents here, and both are making arrests (as well as sometimes killing people).
When you profit from imprisoning others--you will grab as many as your unmarked vans can hold regardless if they're "criminals" or not. #AbolishICE
What’s the enforcement mechanism when they refuse to release data they are congressionally mandated to release and is there anyway we can escalate this issue.
If a person is here illegally that is a crime and that’s what I voted for
A content creator I like said there are approximately 3,800 children imprisoned in ICE facilities currently. Is this number about right?
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Steph, you might want to lay off the bath salts.