This post is a longer essay in response to the 2024 election and attempts to lay the groundwork for how to think about the next Trump administration particularly as it relates to immigration.
Thank you so much for breaking this down, and for keeping an eye on the policies and the human beings affected by them. I'll be watching this space for sure. Trump 1.0 got me into immigration law, and now I have the credentials and skills to hopefully help at least some people cross the next four years safely.
As a practitioner in this space, I am trying to gear up and be less frenetic, less reactive to every insane announcement…let’s see what actually is implemented and then respond as thoughtfully as we can, and share responsibility across agencies and coalitions with different specializations. We have to outlast, again. It will be exhausting but we need to preserve our energies and resources. We should all become familiar with the concept and research around moral injury, because I think this is helpful to situate what we experience within a framework.
Hi! Great post. You said that a "mass deportation" effort has "repeatedly proven to be impossible to execute, unpopular with voters" - what about the emboldening of local law enforcements to carry out this policy? Is this likely to happen and what are your thoughts on this? Wouldn't this make a mass deportation possible - if very chaotic? A chaos which is key to the "volatility" you mention? Interested in your thoughts, and thank you for your work.
I think the kind of mass deportation that Trump is talking about will be very difficult due to logistical issues: detention space, number of staff, cost and availability of deportation flights, etc. So they'll have some major hurdles to navigate! Doesn't meant they can't do it, and one strategy (as you note) concerns using various federal and nonfederal agencies to fill in the labor gaps. So it's possible that they'll find a way, but it will only add to the volatility and confusion around how things are working and will likely develop at least some push back from these other agencies. Say the national guard is called up. I guarantee we'll see national guard officers go public with saying that this isn't why they joined the army, etc. -- that kind of thing.
Thank you so much for breaking this down, and for keeping an eye on the policies and the human beings affected by them. I'll be watching this space for sure. Trump 1.0 got me into immigration law, and now I have the credentials and skills to hopefully help at least some people cross the next four years safely.
I appreciate having you as a colleague in this space. Let's keep the conversation going.
This: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/712236/wild-mind-wild-earth-by-david-hinton/
Fascinating recommendation, thank you! I had not heard of this.
Thank you for this analysis. It is so useful to have pinpointed VOLATILITY as a major source of the distress to come.
Absolutely, I think it's an important thing to recognize – and prepare for.
As a practitioner in this space, I am trying to gear up and be less frenetic, less reactive to every insane announcement…let’s see what actually is implemented and then respond as thoughtfully as we can, and share responsibility across agencies and coalitions with different specializations. We have to outlast, again. It will be exhausting but we need to preserve our energies and resources. We should all become familiar with the concept and research around moral injury, because I think this is helpful to situate what we experience within a framework.
Absolutely, like you said, it will be so exhausting so we have to run a marathon, not a sprint.
Thank you. Keep thinking, working and writing.
Thanks so much for the support, Robb.
Bluesky link not working. Thanks much for this—great breakdown of what we might expect.
Thanks for catching that. I fixed it.
Hi! Great post. You said that a "mass deportation" effort has "repeatedly proven to be impossible to execute, unpopular with voters" - what about the emboldening of local law enforcements to carry out this policy? Is this likely to happen and what are your thoughts on this? Wouldn't this make a mass deportation possible - if very chaotic? A chaos which is key to the "volatility" you mention? Interested in your thoughts, and thank you for your work.
I think the kind of mass deportation that Trump is talking about will be very difficult due to logistical issues: detention space, number of staff, cost and availability of deportation flights, etc. So they'll have some major hurdles to navigate! Doesn't meant they can't do it, and one strategy (as you note) concerns using various federal and nonfederal agencies to fill in the labor gaps. So it's possible that they'll find a way, but it will only add to the volatility and confusion around how things are working and will likely develop at least some push back from these other agencies. Say the national guard is called up. I guarantee we'll see national guard officers go public with saying that this isn't why they joined the army, etc. -- that kind of thing.