ICE Arrest Surge in May and June Driven by Immigrants with No Criminal History
In Part 3 of my series on ICE arrest data, I incorporate Deportation Data Project's new data to find (1) a surge in non-criminal ICE arrests and (2) an overall decline in daily arrests in June.
This is Part 3 of a multi-part series on ICE ERO administrative arrest data made public by the Deportation Data Project. If you haven’t yet, you may want to read Part 1 or listen to my Substack Live explanation, as well as Part 2 before reading Part 3.
The Deportation Data Project released new ICE data today just as I was writing Part 3 of this series on immigration arrests under the Trump administration. While the previous dataset ended on June 10, the latest data has been updated through the end of the day on July 26.1 This brings us nearly through the end of June, giving us five full months of data on how Trump’s mass deportation agenda is unfolding in practice.
I previously projected that ICE would make about 35,000 arrests by the end of June based on the first 10 days of high arrests at the beginning of the month. But ICE’s high arrest numbers, which peaked at 2,000, have since declined considerably back down to nearly 1,000 according to the latest data.
This finding reinforces my observation in Part 2 of this series that DHS’s increase of ICE arrest quotas to 3,000 per day was more political theater than operational reality. In a recent in-depth interview with Jon Greenberg at Poynter, I explained how these unattainable quotas are part of a larger project to create the perception of an unending and irresolvable crisis. I encourage you to read the whole interview.
Greenberg: You speak to Trump’s motives in setting a goal of 3,000 arrests a day. You don’t see evidence that that’s doable, but you have this key line: “The unattainability of the quotas is the point.”
Kocher: We know that the Trump administration set quotas for 1,500 to 2,000 arrests per day. They never got close to that. They only barely crossed that for a few days in May and June. The numbers really are going up, but they’ve already increased the quota again to 3,000 a day.
My interpretation of that — and others are welcome to draw different conclusions —is we know through political history that there is a strategy around what we might call the manufacturing of endless crisis.
As long as the administration keeps moving the quota bar, as long as ICE can never meet the quota bar, it gives the impression that solving immigration is always out of reach. And things like this help shape the public narrative that well, we need to throw more money at the problem because there’s no way we’re ever going to get to the quota.
As a result of fewer-than-expected arrests, I estimate that ICE conducted closer to 32,000 arrests if we include estimates for the final four days in June for which we do not have data. This is still very high when we look back over the past two and a half years, but it also demonstrates the unpredictable fluctuations that arise when following federal data in real time.
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Although ICE arrests did decline gradually through the end of June, the latest arrest data allows me to solidify my prior observations that ICE is arresting and detaining more people without criminal histories.
In the graph below, I adopt a 7-day retrospective total that David Bier used effectively (see Part 2 for that discussion). Using this approach, we can see a major shift take place between mid-May to mid-June: the total number of people ICE arrested with no criminal histories surged while immigrants with criminal charges and convictions remained relatively unchanged. In fact, it appears that at least for a week or two, arrests of immigrants without criminal histories displaced arrests of immigrants with criminal histories.
We see a similar trend when looking at the monthly breakdown by percentage of each of ICE’s categories of criminal history: the percent of people arrested by ICE with criminal convictions has gone down considerably. By June, immigrants with only immigration violations (no charges or convictions) made up the largest percentage of ICE arrests nationwide.
To be clear, ICE has the authority to arrest immigrants who are suspected of violating immigration laws, regardless of criminal history. Nevertheless, the administration has gone to great lengths in the press and on social media to emphasize the criminality of people they are arresting. Both things can be true, of course. ICE can arrest some people with violent criminal histories and a lot of people without criminal histories.
As I have written previously (at great length), it’s an ethical and political question about whether criminal history alone—especially when it involves minor crimes committed a long time ago—justifies mass deportation or the deportation of family members of U.S. citizens. This new data release from the Deportation Data Project helps illuminate the facts surrounding a controversial and rapidly changing landscape of immigration enforcement.
Pro Tip: Validating DDP’s New Arrest Data
In Part 1 of this series, I emphasized the importance of validating administrative data before you use it. Before analyzing the data for this post, I conducted a quick validation and projection using the method below. I compared the monthly summary of total arrests from DDP’s previous release to the current one to see if there were any major changes.
As you can see, there are minor differences that are normal when extracting data from dynamic databases, but nothing so severe to warrant further concern. The new data gave us an additional 15,900 records through nearly the end of June. Using a simple daily average derived from 26 days of data, I estimated the total for the end of the month.
It’s not complex math, but it does require attention to detail that far too many researchers and analysts overlook in a rush to publish new data. On that note, please know that I have an open door if you see any mistakes or omissions in my analysis here.
Want to Learn More? Listen to “The Data of Mass Deportation” on WNYC
I joined Brian Lehrer’s show on WNYC recently to discuss the latest data on immigration detention under the Trump administration. It was one of the most substantive interview experiences I’ve ever had. The show included stories from callers that add human texture to our discussion about the numbers. Listen to The Data of Mass Deportation today on WNYC.
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Note that June 27 does show a single arrest, but that calendar day is very likely incomplete so I don’t include that date in the analysis.
"...The manufacturing of endless crisis."
I see this "manufacturing of endless crisis" as the main motive behind these terribly high arrest quotas ICE is supposed to meet. It's why in their rush to make the quotas ICE agents will go for the "low hanging fruit" of immigrants with no criminal history and no good reasons to be removed from the US other than to meet a possible racist agenda of Trump's donors. And with less immigrant workers in the fields this summer, the US really will have a crisis when the store shelves are empty and the crops are left rotting in the fields because no one was there to pick them.