Number of Refugees Resettled in U.S. Likely to Reach 30-Year High if Trends Continue

The Biden administration is on track to resettle an estimated 93,000 refugees this year, short of its 125,000 cap but higher than any year since 1995.

According to the latest data from the Refugee Processing Center, the Biden administration is on track to resettle 92,979 refugees this fiscal year, up from 60,014 last year in FY 2023. These numbers are projected based on the 32,021 refugees resettled between the start of October and the end of January.

To put that in context, 93,000 would be the largest number of resettled refugees in any single year since 1995 and certainly larger than any year post-9/11 (although FY 2016 would be a close second).

The refugee resettlement process is a new beginning for people around the world, but it is also the very end of the refugee classification and resettlement process that takes many years and happens abroad. The vast majority of refugees are hosted by countries in the Global South—countries like Jordan, Turkey, and Colombia—not countries in the Global North.

Many experts noted that the Trump administration largely destroyed the refugee resettlement system, leading to record lows that continued into the Biden administration. Thus, these numbers not only represent real people and real stories, these numbers also reflect a multi-year process of reinvesting in the refugee resettlement system.

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Welcome back. My name is Austin Kocher, and I’m a professor who writes about the fascinating world of immigration. If you’re new, welcome! 🙏🏼 You can learn more about this newsletter on the “about” page—and please consider subscribing.

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Higher Numbers Still Fall Short of Cap

If the Biden administration hits this estimated 93,000, it will have fallen short again of its 125,000 cap set back in November. But don’t get too worked up about this difference. There are three caveats to keep in mind to my estimates here.

1. The cap is just a cap.

The cap is just a cap, an upper limit. Most years the administration does not hit the cap so it would not be unusual if that were true again this year. I still think it matters that administrations are not using the cap as political theatre without the intent to follow through. I worried about this early in the Biden administration, but the current trends are promising.

2. The percentage of the cap used is increasing.

The cap has remained at 125,000 each year for the past three years, while the percentage used up has increased from 15 percent in FY 2022 to an estimated 74 percent this year. That’s a significant increase! (Using a smaller percentage of a larger number is a better thing—from a refugee perspective—than using 100 percent of a smaller number. But you knew that.)

3. Resettlement numbers are increasing each month.

My estimate of about 93,000 comes from the total number of resettled refugees in the first four months of FY 2024. But if you look at the monthly numbers, those increased in January. Therefore, if this slight increase is sustainable or if the growth continues, the administration could still hit its 125,000 goal.

I realize now that I don’t know if an administration could exceed its stated goal, or if they could adjust their goal upward in expectation of higher numbers. If you know, please tell me in the comments.

Where can I learn more about refugees?

To learn more about the data presented here, download the Refugee Council USA’s recent report and visit their social media toolkit with images and graphics.

You can also learn more about refugee issues and data by going to the front page of this newsletter, clicking Archive, and entering the search term “refugee.” There are dozens of back issues on refugee data, the refugee and asylum process, stories, book reviews, and more. You can always add questions in the comment section and I’ll respond right away.

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